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could well be the result of experiments gone wrong in the Wuhan research lab. We'll almost for sure never know the truth - because the murderous mafia that runs China is highly allergic to the truth, and the craven greedy scumbags that run the West can do nothing but lavish praise.
So basically we're all screwed and it's time to panic.
I think i would have been banned x 3 for writing this on birdsite 😂

"allergic to the truth" - here's a good documentation of just how real that is. Video documents how doctors were being arrested for "spreading rumours" early on, thus vastly worsening the problem.

youtube.com/watch?v=HE7Iz7HLpY

I'd point out that what we see on birdsite and similar is essentially exactly the same thing - just not as extreme.

If you still think the term "fake news" is meaningful or useful, please reconsider. That is a child's view of the world, with no depth.

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@waxwing been following this closely and am of two minds... had upcoming travel in mind to conferences/workshops in paris, dakar, nyc and sf... my current thought is to cancel them all and work alone in an isolated place for a few months

@jon @waxwing If the virus truly is as contagious as it appears, it might be in your interest to catch it early. If you're going to catch it anyway, it might be better to get it when there are still intensive care units available should you need one.

@kekcoin @waxwing

thanks. i thought about that, but (a) not simple to catch it early, and (b) afaict too much is unknown on mortality, treatment, and long-term effects.

there are not many survivors so far, and the infected cases outside of china don't appear to be cured yet

@jon @waxwing It was more of a thought exercise - I would not recommend anyone actually do that. Should have noted that as a disclaimer.

@kekcoin @waxwing

finally, it would be best to catch it in a country with available care, but also reasonable in cost, e.g. not the USA, for example

@jon @waxwing There's already plenty of reasons to avoid travel to the United States, but yes, that is another factor.

@kekcoin @waxwing

agreed: hassles at the border, laptop/phone/HW search & seizure, third-world style asset confiscation, etc.

@waxwing We're only screwed if the mortality rate ramps. So far it hasn't seemed to mutate. If its truly widespread, the truth will be hard to hide. Torn feelings about it, if the mortality is low I'd just rather catch the damned thing and beat it on my own. But who knows, we're really in the dark here outside of some people leaking videos and texts.

@waxwing @TallTim Forget the death rate - look at the % of severe cases; people who need intensive care to survive and beat this thing. Latest WHO report (who.int/docs/default-source/co) has about 15% rate of severe cases, and that's the most conservative calculation (ie. it assumes the "deaths" are also included in the "severe" category).

@waxwing @TallTim

I don't think the medical infrastructure is up to par in many places to deal with that. Maybe in (certain regions of) China where they can construct hospitals with thousands of beds of capacity, but India? Bangladesh? And the "severe" cases are afaiu the "needs respiratory assistance" kind - it's not like the other cases are fit to work. This is crippling for an economy.

@kekcoin @TallTim i wonder whether it's much less contagious in hot environments though, i think that's normally the case for these type of diseases (?)

@waxwing @kekcoin Not sure, haven't thought about local climate as a factor. At least for other serious diseases like Ebola it doesn't seem to have an effect.

@kekcoin @stevenroose @waxwing @TallTim

thanks

see also this thread between @sjors and i about lack of insurance coverage (it's considered force majeure)

twitter.com/jonatack/status/12

@jon @stevenroose @waxwing @TallTim @sjors I read it and while the math of their estimations is a bit overwhelming for me, I can't help but notice they calculate a (very low) death rate by using estimated (much higher) infection counts but the official death counts...

@kekcoin @stevenroose @waxwing @TallTim @sjors

i've never been a prepper but finally ordered a full face respirator, screw-on filters, gloves and suits yesterday, just in case... the last two are trivial in cost, the mask and filters were a bit more

@kekcoin @waxwing This will absolutely crush China, GDP-wise. Shutting down all those factories and other activity isn't helping, and the knock-on effects will ripple outward. We still don't know what the second-order effects will be on other economies.

@TallTim @kekcoin @waxwing I'm also mostly thinking about the long term economical and political consequences, and I am surprisingly not that afraid of being ill even if I am probably more exposed than other people as most of my friends are Chinese. But I'm starting to think that this epidemics could be the black swan that will trigger a long due economic crisis.

@Sosthene @kekcoin @waxwing This will kneecap China, that's for sure. Then the second-order effects kick in. Putting all your manufacturing into one country's basket may prove to be a killing blow for some corporations.

@TallTim @kekcoin @waxwing oh yeah, if China got a cold many countries will simply die off. And this time I don't see who will be the next powerhouse that drives the world economy : India ? Russia ? Brazil ? And what about the planet Mars ?😂

@Sosthene @kekcoin @waxwing Some capacity moved to Vietnam and South Korea, with smaller stops in Indonesia. Big difference is infrastructure and available shipping options by sea. Even if China declared victory and opened up for business next week, it still would have massive ripple effects that haven't been felt yet.

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